Academic Test Scores
Average scale scores of eighth graders taking the National Assessment of Education Progress (NAEP) in math, reading, science, civics, and US history. Funded and managed by the federal government, the NAEP is a low-stakes test administered every few years to a representative sample of the nation’s schools.
Why did we include this measure?
It is widely agreed that these academic subjects are important. Increases in test scores, especially math and reading, cause increases in a wide variety of other long-term life outcomes, including earnings and employment. We focus specifically on eighth-grade NAEP scores because this is a pivotal grade/age for children’s education and it is feasible to include essentially all students, even if they eventually drop out of school. Eighth-grade scores also reflect the accumulation of knowledge from earlier ages and grades. (We note that test score levels cannot be compared across subjects. For example, we cannot say that our math levels are higher than our reading levels.)
How does the US rank globally?
- Specific Measure: Average scaled scores of 15-year-olds on the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA).
(Source: Authors’ analysis of Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development data).
- Percentage of countries the US outperforms:
- Math: 27% (out of 33 countries)
- Reading: 86% (out of 37 countries)
- Science: 74% (out of 47 countries)
- International Rank Trend:
- Math: Stable
- Reading: Improving
- Science: Improving
National Trend Mixed
What do the data show?
The national trends in test scores were generally increasing until about 2013 and then began to decline after that. The most recent scores are generally at the level of the early 1990s.
Our math scores are below similar countries, and our international standing has not improved over the period we analyzed. The results are noticeably more positive in reading and science and are also improving over time. (In the Executive Summary, we report the simple average of these three percentages, or 62%.)
What might explain these patterns?
Student achievement is closely related to home and family situations. However, one such factor, child poverty has been on the decline, which suggests that other factors are pushing scores down. Education policy and practice also affect student achievement. The recent declining emphasis on test-based accountability may be one factor that may partially explain the pre-COVID decline in scores. Other possible factors include increased distractions from social media and gaming and changing alignment between the content taught in schools and what is covered on the above tests. However, research has not uncovered a definitive explanation about the reasons behind the recent decline in NAEP scores.
COVID led to school closures and altered learning environments that further reduced achievement throughout the world over the past few years. This was true in the United States as well, although we experienced less learning loss than most other countries, which is one reason why our international standing has remained stable or improved.
For more information about data sources and treatments, download the Data Notes.