Employment-to-Population Ratio (EPOP)
Percentage of the population age 25‒54 (“prime age” adults) who are employed.
Why did we include this measure?
The employment-to-population ratio measures the extent to which this age group is working for pay. Those not employed include those who are not in the labor force (for example, because they are raising children at home, are full-time students, or have a disability) and those who are seeking work but cannot find an acceptable job. While there are often good reasons not to be working, this measure is useful because it reflects all the possible reasons that people might not work. With this and the other work measures below, we focus specifically on those age 25‒54 to avoid including young adults who are not working because they are in college and older adults who are not working because they are retired. (The term “prime age” refers to the idea that these are ages when we are most likely to be in the labor force.)
How does the US rank globally?
- Specific Measure: (Same as above.)
(Source: Authors’ analysis of International Labor Organization data).
- Percentage of countries the US outperforms: 26% (out of 34 countries)
- International Rank Trend: Worsening
National Trend Mixed
What do the data show?
The figure shows that the employment-to-population ratio has fluctuated between 75% and 82% since 1990. In other words, a bit more than three out of four of the United States’ prime age adults are typically employed outside the home. Recessions are indicated in this and the other figures in this section with a gray vertical bar covering the recession periods.
What might explain these patterns?
The most recent level is slightly above the first point on the graph, which suggests little change. However, the trends vary across several key periods. The ratio was increasing from 1990 until its peak around 2000, then declined some, and saw a sharp decline with the 2008 Great Recession. It then took more than a decade for the figure to revert back to the pre-2008 level, but then came the COVID-19 pandemic. More generally, employment is strongly related to the business cycle. Because the trend depends so strongly on the specific year we start with, this is a rare case where we have decided to indicate a mixed trend direction in the report summary.
The United States also fares poorly on this employment measure compared with other high-income countries, and we are falling further behind. The countries ranked just above us are Belgium, Israel, and France, though we are separated from all three by less than two percentage points. On the other hand, Russia is ranked first and has about half as many nonemployed people.
One reason we have been declining globally on the employment-to-population ratio is that other countries have been catching up to the US on a closely related measure: short-term unemployment rates. Also, while birth rates have been declining in both the US and higher-income countries generally, other countries provide more generous government-funded parental leave and childcare so that parents can more easily remain in and rejoin the workforce if they choose.
For more information about data sources and treatments, download the Data Notes.